Great stats. Do you have them for Murray and Hield?
I lifted this from another forum .... shhhh!
DE has Davis to us at #16 and Valentine just before us at #22 ... Valentine ranks higher than Hield and would be a steal @ #23 but if we want him we'd have to use #16 to be assured of getting him. I like Davis as much as Chriss.
I've ranked the top 30 NCAA prospects based on my "consensus" projections, which combine stats and scouting. This approach leads to both some surprising results and a good prediction for how well each prospect will perform in the NBA.
To be more specific, I use both my wins above replacement player (WARP) statistical projections and each player's rank on Chad Ford's Big Board to better predict who will be successful in the NBA.
For more on how my statistical projections work, see here. Otherwise, let's start with a familiar name
Ben Simmons (1)LSU Forward Big Board: No. 1
Stats: No. 2Consensus: 3.7 WARP
As I've discussed with Ford, the only reason Simmons isn't atop the WARP projections is the way they regress players to positional averages -- meaning that the system assumes that some of his great stats are difficult to sustain. That tends to penalize versatile players like Simmons, particularly when they only have one year of data.
Despite his disappointing finish, Simmons had one of the best freshman seasons of the one-and-done era and is the obvious No. 1 pick from a statistical standpoint.
Brandon Ingram (2)Duke Small forward Big Board: No. 2
Stats: No. 5Consensus: 3.1 WARP
Where Simmons rates in the top 25 percent of prospects at his position in four different categories, Ingram only has one such strength: his shooting ability. So far, his wingspan hasn't translated into elite defensive performance in terms of box-score stats. Age does work in Ingram's favor, though: At 18, he's more than a year younger than Simmons.
Jamal Murray (3)Kentucky Shooting guard Big Board: No. 4
Stats: No. 13Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Don't read too much into Murray ranking 13th in projected WARP; he's only 0.2 WARP behind Ingram in fifth. Since the board is so tightly packed outside the top handful of players, the scouting consensus takes on increased importance and puts Murray third among collegians.
Henry Ellenson (4)
Marquette Power forward Big Board: No. 5
Stats: No. 17Consensus: 2.3 WARP
Because of his limited athleticism, I expected Ellenson to perform better in statistical projections than scouting rankings. Instead, the opposite is true. Ellenson wasn't a particularly efficient scorer at Marquette, which had an even worse season than LSU, finishing 8-10 in the Big East. Yet Ellenson still ranks fifth on Ford's Big Board.
Jakob Poeltl (5)Utah Center Big Board: No. 10
Stats: No. 8Consensus: 2.2 WARP
Returning for a second season has worked out well for Poeltl, who's improved his WARP projection from 1.6 to 2.2 by developing his finishing and his distribution. A good tournament run could help his standing on draft boards, though few teams in the top 10 are in need of a traditional center.
Kris Dunn (6)Providence Point guard Big Board: No. 7
Stats: No. 19Consensus: 2.1 WARP
Few prospects in this year's draft are more capable of contributing right away than Dunn, who has the highest 2016-17 projection of anyone in Ford's top 10. The one concern is whether Dunn can score efficiently after making 48 percent of his 2s and 34 percent of his 3s this season.
Wade Baldwin IV (7)Vanderbilt Point guard Big Board: No. 17
Stats: No. 6Consensus: 2.0 WARP
A statistical sleeper last year, Baldwin got on the NBA's radar with a strong performance over the summer and is now a likely first-round pick. Because of his relatively low usage rate and poor finishing -- he's made less than 44 percent of his 2-point attempts -- Baldwin's upside is low, but at minimum he looks like a quality backup PG.
Diamond Stone (8)Maryland Center Big Board: No. 14
Stats: No. 16Consensus: 1.9 WARP
A raw freshman who played more minutes as the season went along, Stone is probably too aggressive offensively for his own good at this point, but he has the potential to grow into a larger role. He excelled on the offensive glass while struggling on the defensive boards.
Fred VanVleet (9)Wichita State Point guard Big Board: No. 62
Stats: No. 1Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Despite the stereotype that statistical projections hurt experienced prospects, it's VanVleet and not any of the promising freshmen who comes out best by WARP. He ranks in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound point guards in six categories: free throw rate, rebounding, assists, steals, turnover rate and avoiding fouls. Yet there's only one number that seems to matter to NBA scouts when it comes to VanVleet: his 5-foot-11 height. That's why Ford doesn't even have him being taken if everyone ahead of him were to enter the draft.
Marquese Chriss (10)Washington Power forward Big Board: No. 8
Stats: No. 34Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Chriss has an intriguing combination of size, athleticism and skill, which explains his rise into the top 10 of the Big Board. He's developed into a threat from the college 3-point line at 6-foot-9. Yet Chriss projects as a below-replacement NBA player next season, in large part because of his poor defensive rebounding. Chriss has grabbed defensive boards at a lower rate than 6-foot-2 teammate Andrew Andrews.
Buddy Hield (11)Oklahoma Shooting guard Big Board: No. 9
Stats: No. 30Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Inevitably, Hield's 3-point shooting regressed a bit down the stretch, as he's made just 37 percent of his 3s over the past 10 games, his worst 10-game stretch of the season. Still, Hield is the best shooter in the draft, and that should probably make him a lottery pick and possibly a top-10 choice.
Denzel Valentine (12)
Michigan State Small forward Big Board: No. 15
Stats: No. 18Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Hield's slump did open the door for Valentine to reassert himself as the best player in college basketball. Per Sports-Reference.com, Valentine's 17.2 box plus-minus would be the third-best in the NCAA the past six seasons, trailing the freshmen years for Anthony Davis and Karl-Anthony Towns. His projected NBA assist rate is the best in my database for a non-point guard.
Tyler Ulis (13)Kentucky Point guard Big Board: No. 22
Stats: No. 11Consensus: 1.8 WARP
At 5-foot-9, Ulis is even smaller than VanVleet, but after he won SEC Player of the Year honors, scouts seem to be coming around, and he's now considered a likely first-round pick. Among projected first-round picks, only Dunn has a better projected assist rate than Ulis.
Thomas Bryant (14)Indiana Center Big Board: No. 19
Stats: No. 22Consensus: 1.6 WARP
A phenomenal finisher, Bryant has made 70.3 percent of his 2-point attempts this season and flashed the ability to create his own shot in addition to scoring out of the pick-and-roll and off lobs. He made little defensive impact in terms of steals and blocks, however, and the Hoosiers were only average at defending the paint.
Deyonta Davis (15)Michigan State Power forward Big Board: No. 12
Stats: No. 39Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Though he's averaged just 18.7 MPG for a deep Tom Izzo team, Davis can probably contribute right away in a reserve role as a pick-and-roll finisher and shot-blocking presence at power forward.
Gary Payton II (16)Oregon State Point guard Big Board: No. 42
Stats: No. 4Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Hidden in Corvallis the past two years as a JC transfer, GPII will introduce himself to a national audience in the NCAA tournament -- particularly if the Beavers square off with Oklahoma in the round of 32 this weekend. The Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, Payton has developed into a playmaker this season, giving him an NBA position.
Chris Boucher (17)Oregon Power forward Big Board: No. 57
Stats: No. 3Consensus: 1.4 WARP
JC transfers have been a boon to the state of Oregon the past two years. Boucher, a native of Montreal, is a rail-thin power forward (he's listed at 6-foot-10, 200) with a fascinating skill set. He's one of three players in the Sports-Reference.com database to make 30 3-pointers and block 100 shots in a season. The others? K.J. McDaniels and the late Eddie Griffin.
Jameel Warney (18)Stony Brook Power forward Big Board: No. 45
Stats: No. 10Consensus: 1.4 WARP
A mid-major star worth watching this weekend, Warney will lead the Seawolves against Kentucky. He dramatically outproduced the bigger names on the opposite side, ranking in the NCAA's top 40 in 2-point percentage, offensive rebound rate, turnover rate and block rate according to KenPom.com. Warney is an undersized power forward in the DeJuan Blair mold, but with enough rim protection to possibly play center in the NBA.
Monte Morris (19)Iowa State Point guard Big Board: No. 46
Stats: No. 9Consensus: 1.4 WARP
The maestro of the nation's third-best offense, Morris never turns the ball over. He had two turnovers total in a four-game stretch this season in which he played 159 of a possible 160 minutes against three teams that are top-four seeds in the NCAA tournament ... and handed out 33 assists in that span.
Ivan Rabb (20)California Power forward Big Board: No. 11
Stats: No. 54Consensus: 1.4 WARP
One of two top freshmen at Cal, Rabb has had a solid but unspectacular campaign. The big factor working against his statistical projections is a relatively weak steal rate for a good athlete -- he's averaged just 0.8 steals per 40 minutes.
Josh Hart (21)Villanova Shooting guard Big Board: No. 49
Stats: No. 7Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Jay Wright's teams keep getting top seeds with relatively little in the way of NBA talent. When Darrun Hilliard was drafted in the second round last June, he was the second Villanova player drafted since Randy Foye and Kyle Lowry went in the first round a decade ago. Hart should add to that total. He's a high-percentage finisher (60 percent career on 2-point attempts) who is an excellent rebounder for a guard. Alas, teams might have a hard time looking past his 3-point slide from 46 percent as a sophomore to 36 percent this season.
Patrick McCaw (22)UNLV Shooting guard Big Board: No. 52
Stats: No. 12Consensus: 1.3 WARP
A long wing with the ability to guard multiple positions, McCaw was one of the nation's top thieves, averaging 2.5 steals per game. He excels in transition and projects as something of a Corey Brewer-type in the NBA.
Domantas Sabonis (23)Gonzaga Power Forward Big Board: No. 20
Stats: No. 43Consensus: 1.2 WARP
The son of Hall of Famer Arvydas is a crafty finisher and good playmaker from the post much like his dad, along with a solid rebounder. The question with Sabonis is whether he can stretch the floor as a power forward or protect the rim well enough to play in the middle.
Caris LeVert (24)Michigan Shooting guard Big Board: No. 26
Stats: No. 27Consensus: 1.2 WARP
Don't read too much into LeVert's big senior year, which mostly came against a relatively weak non-conference schedule before an injury ended his career in Ann Arbor. Even before that, LeVert offered a solid combination of size for the wing, shooting ability and ballhandling.
Taurean Prince (25)Baylor Small forward Big Board: No. 35
Stats: No. 23Consensus: 1.1 WARP
A big, athletic wing in the DeMarre Carroll mold, Prince has a good chance at becoming a starter if he can develop into a consistent 3-point shooter. He shot 40 percent as a junior but dropped to 35 percent beyond the arc this season.
Ron Baker (26)Wichita State Shooting guard Big Board: No. 55
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 1.1 WARP
The other driving force behind the Shockers' seven NCAA tournament wins the last three years (along with VanVleet), Baker has enough playmaking ability to run the point at times. A senior slump beyond the arc to 35 percent (down from 37 percent career) won't help his draft stock.
Grayson Allen (27)Duke Shooting guard Big Board: No. 27
Stats: No. 38Consensus: 1.1 WARP
Relatively poor performance in limited minutes as a freshman hurt Allen's projection. If we look solely at his sophomore season, he ranks virtually the same in projected WARP as on Ford's Big Board.
Cheick Diallo (28)Kansas Power forward Big Board: No. 31
Stats: No. 32Consensus: 1.1 WARP
The only reason Diallo rates so well statistically is because he's played so few minutes (195) his stats get regressed heavily toward the mean. That particularly helps Diallo's 2-point percentage, a poor 55 percent this season.
Jarrod Uthoff (29)Iowa Small forward Big Board: No. 29
Stats: No. 37Consensus: 1.1 WARP
Uthoff entered the season rated higher by WARP projections than scouts, but the conventional wisdom has come around to the point where that relationship has actually flipped.
Tyler Davis (30)Texas A&M Center Big Board: N/A
Stats: No. 16Consensus: 1.1 WARP
The highest-rated player who doesn't appear in Ford's top 100, Davis seems like the kind of player scouts should love. He was a four-star recruit with NBA size and good athleticism. The concern is Davis has been an exceptionally weak defensive rebounder, but he's dominated the offensive glass, is shooting 64 percent from the field and has been a solid shot blocker.
Who's missing?There are two players in the top 20 of Ford's Big Board who don't crack the top 30 of my projections even though their lofty draft stock is factored in. Let's take a closer look at these cases where the stats are much more pessimistic than scouts.
Jaylen Brown (33)California Small forward Big Board: No. 6 Stats: No. 121
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
Because he's been such an inefficient scorer, Brown actually projects for negative WARP in the NBA. He's made 49 percent of his 2-point attempts and a dismal 30 percent beyond the arc, numbers that were even worse before Brown improved to 50 percent and 35 percent, respectively, in conference play. That hasn't stopped Brown from finishing more than 30 percent of Cal's plays. His NBA-caliber size, strength and athleticism translated in terms of drawing fouls but Brown was an average rebounder for an NBA-bound small forward and actually below average in terms of steal rate.
Skal Labissiere (67)
Kentucky Center Big Board: No. 16 Stats: No. 113
Consensus: 0.4 WARP
No player has a bigger gap between potential and production to date than Labissiere, who entered the season a contender to go in the top three (he was my favorite player at last year's Nike Hoop Summit, not Simmons) yet has averaged just 15.6 minutes per game. Lately, Labissiere has shown more signs of his true talent, including an 18-point, nine-rebound, six-block game against LSU. His shot blocking has been good all year. Still, Labissiere's poor defensive rebounding and terrible 2-point percentage for a college big man (52 percent) give him too a negative WARP projection.
