How today's games could impact C's playoff scenario

By Bobby Manning


Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

The Celtics clinched the East’s top seed on Mar. 25 and the NBA’s best record on Apr. 4. They’ve sat back since, playing out the schedule some nights, resting on others. Fans have watched with intrigue as the first round scenarios narrowed slightly each night.

“The next time we get on the plane, we mean business,” Jayson Tatum said mic’d up before Boston’s final road game at Milwaukee. “Where are we going? Are going down to Miami? Are we going back to Brotherly Love? Are we gonna go to Indiana?”

“Atlanta?” Derrick White said. “Chicago?”

As it stands, the seventh-seed 76ers would host the Heat in the 7-8 Play-In game on Tuesday, with the loser advancing to play the winner of the Hawks-Bulls single elimination matchup. With Atlanta-Chicago locked in and set for Wednesday, the Hawks and Bulls share a roughly 20% chance each of grabbing the eight seed, according to Basketball Reference.

The Heat and Sixers have flip-flopped as the favorite to meet Boston for weeks, settling on 24.3% in favor of Miami on Friday when Philadelphia moved into a three-way tie for fifth. Miami also has the chance, though far less likely, to avoid the Play-In round with a win and some help on Sunday. The Magic and Pacers — fifth and sixth in the standings due to Orlando’s lead atop its division and Indiana’s head-to-head tiebreaker over Philadelphia — could fall into seventh or eighth, and in position to play Boston in the opening round.

That creates the following mind-numbing amount of scenarios:

Let’s go game-by-game through the Sunday schedule and assess what’ll take place during and after Boston finishes its season at home against Washington at 1 p.m.

Hawks-Pacers, 1 p.m.

Atlanta is missing Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu, and while Clint Capela could rest, Trae Young will play his second game since returning from hand surgery. The Hawks are locked into the 10th seed with nothing to play for.

The Pacers, sixth in the East, lead Miami by 1.0 game in a three-way tie for fifth with Orlando and Philadelphia. They own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Philadelphia and Miami, so they only need a win or 76ers loss to avoid the Play-In. If they win and the Magic lose, they’ll move up to fifth into the Celtics’ second round bracket. If they lose and the 76ers win, they’ll fall into the seventh seed. A three-way tie with the Heat (win) and Magic (loss) would drop Indiana to eighth, Orlando to seventh and Miami would avoid the Play-In.

If the Magic, Pacers, 76ers and Heat all win or lose, the standings remain the same and the Pacers would finish sixth, maintaining the Miami-Philadelphia Play-In game.

Raptors-Heat, 1 p.m.

Terry Rozier is out while Duncan Robinson enters the Heat finale questionable. Toronto will play without Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poetl and Immanuel Quickley, among others, after the Heat beat them, 125-103, on Friday.

The Heat can theoretically move up as high as five with a win, but each win in front of them eliminates an additional seed above them since they’re a game below the Play-In line. They own the tiebreaker over Orlando, however, and that awards them the division advantage in any multi-team tie that includes the Magic. They break a head-to-head tie with Philadelphia, but cannot pass the Pacers with a head-to-head tie. That means Miami can only escape the Play-In with a Magic loss, combined with one of the Pacers or 76ers winning, or a four-way tie created by Orlando, Indiana and Philadelphia losses.

It’s more likely the Heat stay in the Play-In round, either against the 76ers if both Indiana and Orlando take care of business, or one of the Pacers or Magic slip-up.

Bucks-Magic, 1 p.m.

The biggest game of the afternoon. The Bucks enter mostly healthy, minus Giannis Antetokounmpo, who’s still out following his calf strain against Boston last week. They’ve split two games without him, a win over the Magic (117-99) and loss to the Thunder. Milwaukee could use a win to clinch the No. 2 seed, which the Knicks threatened by tying them on Friday and the Cavaliers (1.0 GB) also could clinch in a three-way tie scenario. That latter outcome would drop the Bucks to fourth, and while that might set up a first round series against the Magic, a Pacers loss and 76ers win would move Philadelphia into fifth.

The best scenario for the Bucks is maintaining home court prior to a hypothetical East Finals against Boston, and beating the Magic could set them up to clinch the No. 7 seed or help the dangerous Heat and/or Sixers move out of the play-in entirely. That likely sets up an Orlando loss.

The Magic are healthy; only Wendell Carter Jr. is questionable on Sunday, but they’ve lost three straight and 6-of-10 to collapse down the East standings. If they lose again, their only way to avoid the Play-In would be losses by the Pacers and Heat, or losses by both them and Philadelphia that hold the line. Otherwise, the Heat and Sixers both break head-to-head ties with Orlando, and if the Pacers and Heat finish tied with them, Miami finishes sixth, while the Pacers and Magic face in Orlando in the Play-In. The same goes for a Heat, 76ers and Magic tie, because Miami’s head-to-head advantage over Orlando gives it the division. In that case, Orlando would travel to Philadelphia for the Play-In.

Basketball Reference now gives Orlando a 13.5% chance to face Boston round one, almost equal odds as the 76ers who once stood as the favorite to take on the Celtics. The Magic finished 4-0 against the Bulls this year while they lost 3-of-4 to the Hawks.

Nets-76ers, 1 p.m.

Perhaps the most predictable of these games, the Sixers enter winners of seven straight while the Nets have nothing to play for and won’t have Dorian Finney-Smith, Dennis Schroder, Cam Johnson, Dennis Smith Jr. and Day’Ron Sharpe, among others. They did, however, build a 17-point lead over the Knicks on Friday before squandering it.

Joel Embiid also had to leave the 76ers’ win over Orlando that night briefly after tweaking his left knee, something he’s done multiple times since returning from surgery. Such an occurrence could cast some doubt on this game, and if the Sixers lose, they’ll stay in the Play-In game and could even drop to eighth, forcing them to travel on Tuesday.

If they win, the Sixers could move as high as fifth with some help, specifically Pacers and Magic losses. The Magic and Pacers would fall into the Play-In with a Heat win in that case, while the Magic would host Miami in the 7-8 game if the Heat lose. A Magic win and Pacers loss would move Philly into sixth and the Pacers down to seventh, while a Pacers win and Magic loss moves Indiana to fifth, Philadelphia to sixth and the Magic to seventh or eighth.

Other games worth watching —