Sox On The Move

Sox making decent moves i think

I'm ok moving Story to short if Boggy tries to rape us.

Signing Devers is a must.

Red Sox To Sign Chris Martin To Two-Year Deal
By Darragh McDonald | December 8, 2022 at 6:20pm CDT
December 8: Robert Murray of FanSided provides the specific contract breakdown. Martin will make $6MM in 2023 and $7.5MM in 2024, in addition to a $4MM signing bonus.

December 2: The Red Sox and reliever Chris Martin are in agreement on a two-year deal, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. The deal is pending a physical and will be worth $17.5MM.

Martin, 37 in June, has had one of the more unique baseball trajectories. As detailed in this 2019 piece from Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Martin had shoulder surgery in 2006 that he thought was the end of his career. Years later, he was working for Lowe’s and UPS and discovered during a game of catch with friends that his shoulder didn’t bother him anymore.

He got back onto the mound and worked his way to the big leagues, pitching a couple of seasons in 2014 and 2015 before heading to Japan for 2016 and 2017. He returned to the majors for 2018 and has spent the past five seasons as an effective middle reliever with perhaps the best control in the league. Martin has walked just 2.8% of batters faced in that time, the best such rate of any pitcher with at least 200 innings pitched.

This year was no exception. He began the year by signing a one-year deal with the Cubs for $2.5MM plus incentives. Through 31 1/3 innings in Chicago, his ERA was an unimpressive 4.31 but with much stronger peripherals. His 30.1% strikeout rate, 3% walk rate and 52.3% ground ball rate were all much better than league average. However, his ERA was being inflated by a .393 batting average on balls in play and by 20.8% of his fly balls allowed leaving the yard.

The Dodgers believed some regression was due and sent Zach McKinstry to the Cubs in order to install Martin in their bullpen down the stretch. The results were utterly dominant, as Martin pitched to a 1.46 ERA, striking out 37% of batters faced while walking just 1.1%. He also added another two innings of postseason work without issuing a walk.

Based on that strong season, MLBTR predicted he could secure a two-year, $14MM deal, but Martin has nudged past that by a few million. The relief market has been quite strong so far this winter, with Martin and Rafael Montero both beating their predictions by healthy margins.

Seth Lugo Drawing Widespread Interest


DECEMBER 7: The Angels, Nationals and Dodgers are also in the market, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic.

DECEMBER 6, 8:01pm: The Red Sox are also expressing interest in Lugo, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (on Twitter).

DECEMBER 6, 6:39pm: Right-hander Seth Lugo has been drawing interest as a starting pitcher and Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that working as a starter is Lugo’s preference as well, with the Padres one of several teams interested in him.

It’s been a while since Lugo has been tried out in a rotation role for more than a brief stretch. His career high for starts in a big league season is 18, which came back in 2017. Since that time, he’s been primarily working out of the bullpen, serving as an effective reliever for the Mets.

In 278 career games, only 38 of them have been starts, but Lugo has a career 3.48 ERA, 24.8% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 44.1% ground ball rate. He’s fared much better out of the ’pen, as his ERA is 2.91 there while 4.35 as a starter, with more strikeouts as a reliever to match.

Despite that split, as mentioned, it’s been quite some time since Lugo’s been given an extended stretch in the rotation. That means most of those stats came from Lugo’s first two years in the big leagues, when he made 26 of those 38 career starts. It’s possible he’s capable of producing better results now that he has more experience. He also has a larger pitch mix than the average reliever, something that could help him move through a lineup a few times. Last year, he had four pitches that he threw at least 13.7% of the time, with his curveball leading the way at 33.5%, followed by his four-seamer at 29.3%, his sinker at 21.9% and his slider at 13.7%. He also has a changeup that he mixed in 1.6% of the time, though it’s been 7.1% for his career.

For the Padres, they lost a couple members of their rotation to free agency in Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea, while also trading MacKenzie Gore to the Nationals. Nick Martinez opted out of his contract but was quickly re-signed and seems to have a chance of retaking a rotation spot himself, after getting bumped to the bullpen. They currently have Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell in the front three spots. It would be surprising to see them go into the season with the last two spots in their rotation dedicated to unproven options like Martinez and Lugo, especially when they just reportedly offered Trea Turner $342MM. But it’s possible they could also add a fourth starter and have those Martinez and Lugo battle for the fifth spot with one of them going to the bullpen if everyone is healthy. Though Lugo reportedly prefers to start, it’s unknown how he would value a non-guaranteed starting role on a contender like the Padres against a clearer path to starting on a less-competitive team.

Red Sox To Sign Kenley Jansen
By Steve Adams |
11:03am: Jansen will be paid an even $16MM in each season of the contract, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.

9:35am: The Red Sox are in agreement on a two-year, $32MM contract with free-agent right-hander Kenley Jansen, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link). The Wasserman client becomes the third free-agent reliever to sign in Boston this winter, joining righty Chris Martin and lefty Joely Rodriguez in what’s becoming a rapidly overhauled bullpen.

Kenley Jansen

Change was necessary in the Boston ’pen, however, as Red Sox relievers logged the fifth-worst ERA in baseball (4.59) and ninth-worst FIP (4.13) — due in no small part to combining for the fifth-highest walk rate of any relief corps in MLB. The ninth inning, in particular, was a revolving door for the Sox in 2022. Nine different relievers recorded saves, and righties John Schreiber, Tanner Houck and Matt Barnes finished the season in a three-way tie for the team lead, at eight apiece.

Jansen, nine saves away from 400 in his illustrious career, should bring some much-needed stability to the situation. The 35-year-old’s velocity is down a couple miles per hour from its 2014 peak, but he’s managed to find plenty of success even as his deadly cutter has faded from an average of nearly 95 mph to a 92.2 mph average with the Braves in 2022.

It was just a one-year stay in Atlanta for Jansen, who’d spent the prior 12 seasons of his big league career with the Dodgers, but the results were strong. Jansen saved 41 games and pitched to a 3.38 ERA with even better secondary marks: a 32.7% strikeout rate, an 8.5% walk rate and a 2.76 SIERA, to name a few. That walk rate, in particular, marked a pronounced rebound from an uncharacteristic spike to 12.9% in 2021, which now looks more like an anomaly than the start of a worrying trend.

Jansen’s 2022 season wasn’t without its red flags. Last season’s 11.4% swinging-strike rate was a career-low by a full two percentage points and clocked in 3.9 percentage points south of his 15.3% career mark. He also required a stint on the injured list due to an irregular heartbeat for the fourth time in his career. Jansen has had a pair of cardiac ablation procedures in hopes of finally putting the heart issues behind him. While it seems he’s not entirely clear of the longstanding issue, it’s also encouraging that he returned in the minimum 15 days this time around.

The 2022 season marked Jansen’s 13th season in the Majors, all of which have resulted in an ERA of 3.71 or lower (including nine sub-3.00 campaigns and four sub-2.00 seasons). Despite the brief absence due to his heartbeat issue, the otherwise-durable Jansen topped 60 innings in nine of the past ten full, 162-game seasons. It’s fair to say that he’s gone from virtually unbeatable in his 20s to “merely” excellent in his 30s, but Jansen still possesses a 3.08 ERA in 292 innings since turning 30.

A deepened relief corps with newly signed veterans allows the Red Sox to more confidently give some key young arms a look in the rotation. Garrett Whitlock has oscillated between starting and relieving, but the organization plans to use him as a starter in 2023, GM Brian O’Halloran said earlier in the offseason. Fellow righty Tanner Houck could also get a look in the rotation, O’Halloran added, though no formal decision has been announced on that front. In all likelihood, his role will depend on the manner in which the Sox are able to either bolster the starting rotation and/or further deepen the bullpen.

The Red Sox paid the luxury tax by a narrow margin in 2023, but with the potential departures of Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill and Matt Strahm (who’s reportedly nearing a deal with the Phillies), Boston’s current luxury projection is nearly $60MM shy of the first-tier tax threshold — even including the salaries of newcomers Jansen, Martin and Rodriguez. Boston had more money coming off the books than nearly any team in the sport this winter, and as things stand, they’re more than $70MM from their franchise record for Opening Day payroll.

In that respect, the deluge of near-misses the Sox have had in free agency thus far are extra discouraging. The Red Sox made a three-year offer to Jose Abreu before he signed in Houston, for instance, and they reportedly believed they were close to a three-year, $40MM deal with righty Zach Eflin before he the Florida native the same contract with his home-state Rays. Boston has also reportedly made offers to Andrew Heaney and Tommy Kahnle before they agreed to deals with the Rangers and Yankees, respectively, and the Sox had talks with the Brewers about Kolten Wong before he was traded to the Mariners.