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Post by Admin on May 11, 2018 19:24:28 GMT -5
Celtics take their 2.9% chance of landing pick #2 or #3 into Tuesday's NBA Draft Lottery
By JR
 Tonight [Thurs] was supposed to be the night for the NBA Lottery, but it will now be next Tuesday. The Celtics of course no longer own any Nets picks after the Kyrie trade. The Cavs now own that pick and own a 9.9% chance of jumping into the top 3 in this highly touted draft. The more likely outcome is they stay at #8. Since the Celtics only own the Lakers pick (obtained in the Fultz for Tatum swap) if it lands 2-5 and it has no chance of landing 4 or 5, the C's will go into tonight with a 2.9% chance of coming home with number 2 or 3. Worst case scenario is if the pick goes #1 and Philly gets it. The most likely scenario is the pick goes #10 and would belong to Philly, but wouldn't be the end of the world. The Celtics would then own the Sacramento Kings pick next season (unless it goes #1, then we'd get Philly's crappy pick). 2.9% is pretty long odds, but anything is possible. We'll give you the draft breakdown as soon as it goes down.. www.celticslife.com/2018/05/celtics-take-their-29-chance-of-landing.html
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Post by Admin on May 14, 2018 15:07:26 GMT -5
NBA teams look to the future with draft lottery, combineAssociated Press Even with the conference finals going on, the NBA's eyes turn to the future this week. A future that, perhaps, will have less tanking. The draft lottery — the last before changes come next year to dissuade tanking — is Tuesday night, and then about 70 players will partake in the draft combine that starts on Wednesday. Those events are both happening in Chicago, as are some various league meetings such as a gathering of NBA general managers and other front-office executives. But the biggest news will be made by 14 pingpong balls that will decide who drafts No. 1 next month. "We've got to see what happens in the lottery first and see where our position is," Memphis executive vice president of basketball operations John Hollinger said. "That's going to dictate a lot of the decisions that come after that and how we use our time after that." Phoenix has a 25 percent chance of winning the No. 1 pick, followed by Memphis (19.9 percent), Dallas (13.8 percent) and Atlanta (13.7 percent). The rest of the candidates for No. 1 are Orlando (8.8 percent), Chicago (5.3), Sacramento (5.3), Cleveland (2.8), New York (1.7), Philadelphia (1.1), Charlotte (0.8), Detroit (0.7), the Los Angeles Clippers (0.6) and Denver (0.5). Many of those teams were at the center of tanking questions this season. Now they'll see if it pays off. "We did this year what we felt was in the long-term best interest of the Bulls," Chicago vice president of basketball operations John Paxson said. "It's not a situation that any of us want to ever be in again. And it goes against everything as a competitive person that you believe in. But it's the way the system's set up." For now. The NBA is changing the system.
Starting in 2019, with the NBA hoping that teams have less incentive to strive for the worst record and therefore the best chance of winning the lottery, the odds will be changing. The three teams with the worst regular-season record will each have a 14 percent chance of winning the No. 1 pick, the fourth-worst team will have a 12.5 percent chance and the fifth-worst 10.5 percent. "My sense is we're still going to have some work to do," NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said. Tanking got plenty of attention this season, and a few minutes on Jan. 29 might have decided the race. Phoenix and Memphis played that night. The Grizzlies scored 42 points in the second quarter — their only 40-point period all season — and forced the Suns into 10 consecutive misses in one stretch, on the way to a 120-109 win. The Suns finished one game worse than the Grizzlies. Flip that Jan. 29 outcome, and it would been the Grizzlies with the best chance at the No. 1 pick. "The league has been beating us up right now," said Phoenix guard Devin Booker, who hasn't come even close to making the playoffs and is already on the fourth head coach of his three-year career now that the Suns have hired Igor Kokoskov. "But I think it's going to be motivational for us. I know for myself, working out, I think about that all the time. I never want to be in these situations again." The new lottery format isn't the only looming change related to drafts. It seems likely that by 2020, the one-and-done rule — in place since 2006 — will be gone and players will be allowed to jump from high school directly to the NBA again. If that was the case this season, the rights to draft phenoms like R.J. Barrett, Zion Williamson and Cameron Reddish would probably be decided by those pingpong balls in Chicago on Tuesday. Instead, they're all going to Duke this fall. So they won't be at the combine, nor will the likely top two picks in the June 21 draft — Arizona's Deandre Ayton, and Slovenia's Luka Doncic. Ayton declined the invitation to participate in Chicago, and Doncic's season in Europe isn't over yet. "We sort of expected this, that we might not see the top couple guys there," Hollinger said. "So we just have to adjust from that and get our information in other ways."
www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics/2018/05/nba_teams_look_to_the_future_with_draft_lottery_combine
Comment: Unless the ping-pong balls work their magic again for the Cav Owner's son (now 21 yrs old) ...
Photo Source Unknown: Nick Gilbert represented the Cavs in 2011 and the #1 pick brought them Kyrie Irving
it's unlikely that the Net's pick conveyed to the Cav's as part of the Irving-Thomas trade will net them a top five pick. A few here were angry that Danny traded that pick, thinking the Net's would once again bring us a top draft pick but Danny was right ... sell high as the Net's were making moves to assure the value of that pick was a depreciating asset.
That makes me think of Rozier ... as his value skyrockets, let's hope he doesn't get exposed should we move past the Cavs or worse yet, some sort of freak injury occur. Sure, he'd be a weapon next season for another finals run and ownership could & will pay the tax to do so but how often does a player like Bambo (if available at 4-6) come along? Call Orlando Danny ... do it ... Just do it!
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Post by cole on May 14, 2018 19:41:44 GMT -5
It might be time to simply turn assets into slightly better future assets just to have them around when we need them.
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Post by Admin on May 14, 2018 22:47:12 GMT -5
roll them forward ... that's a possibility.
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Post by kivancb on May 15, 2018 8:46:30 GMT -5
#2 or #3 pick this year would be unreal. Doncic is the real deal, he has all the necessary tools to dominate even at NBA level, but as we are loaded with too many good guards and wings, Deandre Ayton might be a better fit for our plans. One can dream, can't one?
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Post by billge on May 15, 2018 11:40:06 GMT -5
If we do not luck into the number two or three pick, I would trade our number one this year and two of our number ones next year for first , second or third pick for Ayton, Bagley or maybe even Doncic. Our need is a young top flight center both considering our present lineup and the age of our two main big guys. I also would be very interested in picking up a second round pick to secure a shot at Moritz Wagner from Michigan. We don't have many holes to fi, but we need a young big, although a gamble on Doncic would also beinteresting.
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Post by Admin on May 15, 2018 17:15:26 GMT -5
If we do not luck into the number two or three pick, I would trade our number one this year and two of our number ones next year for first , second or third pick for Ayton, Bagley or maybe even Doncic. Our need is a young top flight center both considering our present lineup and the age of our two main big guys. I also would be very interested in picking up a second round pick to secure a shot at Moritz Wagner from Michigan. We don't have many holes to fi, but we need a young big, although a gamble on Doncic would also beinteresting. If you had the the #3 pick in THIS draft, would you trade it for #27 this year and the Kings #1 next along with our #30 next? Not likely ... you have to give up a solid core player and those picks. The best tradable asset we have that another team might want (other than Brown or Tatum) is Rozier. We could include Nader and/or Yabusele in lieu of our #30 in 2019 but that's the best we could do w/o considering Hayward, Irving, Horford, Brown or Tatum but that's not happening ... that's next season's starting five! Ok we have Morris and Theis but Danny won't part with Theis unless it's a dealbreaker. Morris he might consider but Baynes, Morris & Smart are this team's muscle. Baynes is a FA (untradable until July with a S&T) and Smart is a RFA (untradable). All that leaves is Larkin and Monroe who are both FA's as well. As I see it, Rozier is are only low hanging fruit that could be used with a combination of picks and players (Nader/Yabusele) for a trade into this draft's top 5 or 6 ... Call the Magic asap ... They need a PG desperately! |
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Post by billge on May 15, 2018 17:21:46 GMT -5
I could live with trading Rozier. Next year's draft has fewer good bigs at the top
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Post by Admin on May 15, 2018 19:16:07 GMT -5
Lottery Picks 2018: As It Happens ... LIVE!!!
14) Nuggets
13) Clippers
12) Clippers
11) Hornets
10) 76ers <<< Celtics Out
9) Knicks
8) Cavs <<< From Celtics (Nets) < And some thought that trading this pick was a mistake!
7) Bulls <<< Kings have moved up!
6) Magic
5) Mavs <<< Hawks have moved up to Top 3!
4) Grizzlies <<< Out of top 3
Suns, Hawks & Kings for top 3 spots!
3) Hawks
2) Kings
1) SUNS
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Post by Admin on May 15, 2018 19:32:55 GMT -5
Who will they pick? 1) Suns: Doncic or Ayton? (either fills a hole at PG & C) Their new HC "Egor" coached Doncic (6'8" PG) in Europe  DeAndre Ayton, C, ArizonaThe Suns are in a position to take the best player available, pairing him with young star Devin Booker. There is debate about the best player in the draft between Ayton and Slovenian Luka Doncic, but Ayton would seem to be the safer pick. Plus, in NBA history teams have usually opted for the big man first. Ayton won Pac-12 Player of the Year after averaging 20.1 points and 11.6 rebounds while shooting over 61 percent from the field in his lone college season. 2) Kings: Doncic (He's Serbian as is the Kings owner) If Doncic is gone Ayton, Bagley, Jackson or Bamba?  Luka Doncic, SF, SloveniaThe Kings got a favorable draw in the lottery, and will now be able to add young talent to their core of Buddy Hield, De'Aaron Fox, Willie Cauley-Stein, and company. The 19-year-old Doncic averaged 15.2 points per game this season in the EuroLeague and should be an immediate contributor from day one. There is some anticipation that he could be an immediate star as a player who can do just about everything offensively. 3) Hawks: Bagley makes sense if Ayton & Doncic are gone ...  Marvin Bagley III, PF, DukeBagley has the talent of a first overall pick and a great fit for the Hawks, who are in need of a skilled big man. He averaged 21 points and 11.1 rebounds, showing himself as a true offensive force and impressively winning the ACC Player of the Year. 4) Grizz: Bamba, Jackson & Porter are still on the board  Michael Porter Jr., SF, MissouriThe Grizzlies are in a position to take the best player available as they try to get younger. Porter Jr. was the consensus No. 1 overall pick entering the college basketball season, but a back injury caused him to miss most of the year. That injury will make teams nervous about taking him so early, but the upside is undeniable as a 6-10 player who creates a mismatch as an outside shooter, as well as in the post. (According to Fierce, this is the player Danny was focused on for this draft ... Oops! Wrong two drafts in a row) 5) Mavs: They may have lost Nerlens Noel but tanking has paid off in a BIG way (Bamba or Jackson), just as they planned!  Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas
The Mavs tanked to possibly get a talented center from down the road. Bamba is already a solid player and possibly a lottery ticket offensively. The athletic center shot 54 percent from the field while averaging a staggering 10.5 rebounds and 3.7 blocks in Shaka Smart's system. (Yes, the Mavs got my guy for their Center of the future ... DAMN!) 6) Magic: If either Jackson or Bamba falls to #6 Danny needs to make a call!  Jaren Jackson Jr., PF, Michigan StateIt's dire days in Orlando, but Jackson has a chance to be their next uber-talented big man. Jackson is a force defensively and still developing his offensive game. He only scored 10.9 points per game in his freshman season at Michigan State but had three blocks per contest. (Some think Jackson is the center Danny's had his eye on in this draft ... well Danny, does Orlando really need another big next to Vucevic, Biyombo, Isaac & Gordon more than a PG [Rozier])? GET ER' DONE!!!
www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/first_round_2018_nba_mock_draft/s1__26431373
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Post by Admin on May 16, 2018 11:30:06 GMT -5
Luck has limits: a lottery recapThe Kings’ pick waits in 2019, But was this year’s lottery bad for the Celtics? By Sam Sheehan /cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/59753341/usa_today_10838173.0.jpg) Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY SportsDreams of DeAndre Ayton or Luka Doncic went up in smoke for Celtics fans just before the tip of Game Two of the Eastern Conference Finals. The NBA draft lottery was held in Chicago and the < 3% chance of receiving the Lakers’ pick from the Sixers did not pan out for the Celtics, as the Suns, Kings, and Hawks won the top three picks respectively. This means the Celtics will now receive the more favorable of the 2019 Sacramento Kings’ or Philadelphia 76ers’ 1st round pick with both top-1 protected. This will almost certainly be the Kings pick given where the two franchises are, but it is at least worth mentioning. The Lakers half of the pick not conveying means that Celtics will only be left with their own pick in the 2018 draft, something that hasn’t happened to the Celtics since they traded up to draft Kelly Olynyk in 2013. Most Celtics fans will see that as a bad thing. Some Celtics fans will see it as a good thing. Where the truth is lies somewhere in between. The Picks
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NCAA Basketball: Big Ten Conference Tournament-Michigan State vs Michigan Brad Penner-USA TODAY SportsGetting a #2 or #3 pick in this 2018 draft was never very likely for the Celtics, but it certainly might have helped them, given how deep and need specific this draft is. Al Horford is one year away from the chance to opt out of his current deal, which leaves the Celtics in a tricky situation. Al is the soul of the Celtics #1 defense, and has been elite in the playoffs, but he’s also in his 30’s and the Celtics stand to have substantial tax issues in the future. Even if the Celtics never had a shot at Luka Doncic, there was always a chance that they could acquire a talented young big to hedge against disaster should Al leave. The Celtics would not have been forced into any selection, and could have picked from a wide variety of talented bigs like Ayton, Mo Bamba, Marvin Bagley, Jaren Jackson Jr. Wendell Carter, etc. Instead, the Celtics are left kicking the can down the road to what will likely be a weaker draft and much more stressful draft lottery next year.
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NBA: Boston Celtics at Sacramento Kings Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY SportsThe Kings now find themselves in a situation similar to where the Nets and Lakers found themselves last year. They have no incentive to tank, having lost their pick to the Sixers and now Celtics. As we saw with the Lakers and Nets, not having incentive to directly tank can often buoy the floating corpse of a team to middle of the lottery. This all neglects to mention that the Kings leapt to the #2 spot and have a significant chance of having a talented young player on their squad next year. Sacramento is flush with interesting young talent, headlined by speedy point guard De’Aaron Fox, who should make strides in his sophmore campaign. Another key piece of the Kings will be the impressive Serbian national Bogdan Bogdanvic who turned heads with an impressive 39.2% shooting percentage in his rookie year. 2017 first round pick Justin Jackson was disappointing in limited minutes, but fellow draft classmate Harry Giles is a high upside player who will be returning after injury. Buddy Hield and Skal Labissiere are two 2016 first round selections who have shown flashes of promise offensively. Anchoring it all is the “elder statesman” of the Kings young core in athletic center Willie Cauley-Stein, who will be entering the final year of his deal. That’s a lot of young talent for a Kings roster that has struggled in the past. It may be comforting to cite the Kings persistent failure to make the playoffs, but as Celtics fans know all too well, things can change quickly for maturing young players. Even only one or two of the Kings young core developing into starting caliber players would do much for their competence, especially for a team with no incentive to be bad. While the bloodbath of the West may suppress the Kings record a bit (not to mention the chances of the Kings falling out of the lottery are incredibly slim), there is still a solid chance that the Kings are “bad, not putrid” next year and have a similar season to the Knicks or Lakers.On the other side of the coin, if the Kings ARE that bad, things become even more stressful because the Kings winning the #1 overall pick is the worst case scenario for the Celtics. In that case, the Sixers would keep the pick and the Celtics would get Philly’s pick, which will likely be near the end of the first round next year. Lottery reform will kick in next year, which will spread out the odds more, but this actually makes things more dangerous for the Celtics if the Kings aren’t that horrendous. (That said, it also increases their shot at jumping to #2 or #3.)
If the Kings finish anywhere from 30th to 25th, I imagine most Celtics fans will be quite pleased. That said, it will make for a tense lottery viewing where it’s possible for the Celtics to lose a lot. That’s the concern. However… The Books
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NBA: Playoffs-Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
Not getting the Lakers’ pick might have worked out for fans of Marcus Smart and the grit he brought to the Celtics win in Game 2 last night. The Celtics will be entering the final year of Kyrie Irving’s budget deal from before the cap hike. With an outrageously good young core, the Celtics project to spend well on their team, and will almost certainly be in the tax from the summer of 2019 onward. Yesterday, Wyc Grousbeck said: The question is whether or not the Celtics try to buy themselves an extra year by staying out of the tax next year. Doing so would delay the stiff repeater penalties an extra year, and could end up saving the Celtics north of $20 million dollars on a bill that will likely be much bigger than that in 2020-21. The Celtics biggest free agent is Marcus Smart, who will be a restricted free agent this offseason. Had the Celtics won the Lakers pick, it would have added either $7.2M or $6.5M to their books in that first round pick’s salary; by comparison, Boston’s own first rounder slotted at #27 will cost around $1.6M in Year One. Without that lottery pick, the Celtics are better able to match offer sheets other teams may offer Smart, and gives them better options to stay under that tax for at least one more year while retaining Smart.Perhaps I’m reading that situation incorrectly, but this Cavs series has reflected what I think Marcus Smart’s real value to be, and I think it would be a silver lining to be better able to hold on to winning glue player like Smart. It also won’t matter if the Celtics always planned on matching most offers for Smart or if team offers him something crazy like the max. Oh well, it’s nice to have options. The VerdictI guess it’s..fine? Getting Doncic would have been rad, but the Celtics have a team with a 2-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals so I guess it’s hard to complain too much about. The Celtics have a contender to hone, so I suppose the days of prioritizing pick value over roster players is long behind us. That said, the 2019 draft lottery is going to be a stressful affair. Let’s just hope that, by that time, we are heading for Celtics-Warriors II.
www.celticsblog.com/2018/5/16/17359670/luck-has-limits-a-lottery-recap-boston-celtics-lakers-pick-kings-pick-jayson-tatum-markelle-fultz
Comment: Smart's recent play may mean he becomes more costly to keep. Jackic Mac suggested the C's might pay $12MM to keep him but not $15MM or more (what's another $3MM Jackie?). Again, I say Rozier is where the focus should be. His value will never be higher. Trading him now (especially to ORL along with the 2019 SAC pick) gets us the big of the future to replace Al and means we can keep Smart.
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