Off the Brown bandwagon

From 2012 and earlier ... looking for 2013-2015 and will add asap


bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=8039190&postcount=31


2012:

Pick Name From Win% WARPp WARP
1 Anthony Davis Kentucky .570 5.5 8.2
21 Jared Sullinger Ohio St. .491 3.1 0.9
35 Draymond Green Michigan St. .521 2.8 -1.5
34 Jae Crowder Marquette .509 2.7 0.9
3 Bradley Beal Florida .436 2.5 2.0
4 Dion Waiters Syracuse .456 2.2 -0.2
6 Damian Lillard Weber St. .486 2.2 6.1
18 Terrence Jones Kentucky .452 2.1 1.0
59 Marcus Denmon Missouri .489 2.1 -
23 John Jenkins Vanderbilt .461 1.9 0.6


2011

Pick Name From Win% WARPp WARP
22 Kenneth Faried Morehead St. .604 5.1 6.5
1 Kyrie Irving Duke .514 4.2 7.8
2 Derrick Williams Arizona .492 3.3 0.9
23 Nikola Mirotic Real Madrid .482 2.9 -
12 Alec Burks Colorado .464 2.7 -0.3
5 Jonas Valanciunas Lietuvos Rytas .446 2.7 1.9
15 Kawhi Leonard San Diego St. .459 2.5 5.6
10 Jimmer Fredette Brigham Young .502 2.4 0.3
4 Tristan Thompson Texas .453 2.2 1.9
24 Reggie Jackson Boston College .461 2.0 0.5


2010

Pick Name From Win% WARPp WARP
5 DeMarcus Cousins Kentucky .523 4.1 5.4
7 Greg Monroe Georgetown .495 3.3 8.3
9 Gordon Hayward Butler .498 3.3 2.4
11 Cole Aldrich Kansas .519 3.1 0.1
33 Hassan Whiteside Marshall .493 2.8 0.1
12 Xavier Henry Kansas .450 2.7 -1.6
3 Derrick Favors Georgia Tech .440 2.6 3.1
14 Patrick Patterson Kentucky .483 2.4 0.2
10 Paul George Fresno St. .458 2.4 6.1
1 John Wall Kentucky .449 2.4 4.8

2009

Pick Name From Win% WARPp WARP
37 DeJuan Blair Pitt .569 5.0 2.8
3 James Harden Arizona State .528 4.2 7.5
1 Blake Griffin Oklahoma .535 4.2 7.6
7 Stephen Curry Davidson .544 3.9 8.0
5 Ricky Rubio DKV Joventut .480 3.7 2.9
45 Nick Calathes Florida .490 3.1 -
18 Ty Lawson North Carolina .506 2.8 5.1
17 Jrue Holiday UCLA .448 2.8 3.8
46 Danny Green North Carolina .494 2.3 2.5
34 Sergio Llull Real Madrid .482 2.2 -


2008


Pick Name From Win% WARPp WARP
5 Kevin Love UCLA .543 4.6 8.2
2 Michael Beasley Kansas St. .499 3.7 0.2
21 Ryan Anderson California .464 2.6 6.1
34 Mario Chalmers Kansastd>
.489 2.2 3.1
17 Roy Hibbert Georgetown .475 2.1 3.7
19 J.J. Hickson North Carolina St. .433 2.0 1.4
10 Brook Lopez Stanford .439 1.9 4.9
23 Kosta Koufos Ohio St. .414 1.8 1.1
1 Derrick Rose Memphis .416 1.7 5.6
15 Robin Lopez Stanford .424 1.6 1.3


2007


Pick Name From Win% WARPp WARP
2 Kevin Durant Texas .480 3.7 9.4
1 Greg Oden Ohio St. .492 3.6 1.2
4 Mike Conley Ohio St. .460 2.7 3.1
17 Sean Williams Boston College .471 2.4 0.2
3 Al Horford Florida .467 2.2 4.8
8 Brandan Wright North Carolina .436 2.1 1.2
15 Rodney Stuckey Eastern Washington .466 2.1 1.7
9 Joakim Noah Florida .488 2.0 5.3
12 Thaddeus Young Georgia Tech .416 2.0 2.1
34 Nick Fazekas Nevada .479 2.0 0.2

(My boy Fazekas!!!!)



2006


Pick Name From Win% WARPp WARP
4 Tyrus Thomas Louisiana St. .503 3.6 2.3
47 Paul Millsap Louisiana Tech .519 3.2 4.6
5 Shelden Williams Duke .524 2.7 0.2
9 Patrick O'Bryant Bradley .466 2.7 -0.1
21 Rajon Rondo Kentucky .442 2.0 6.5
20 Renaldo Balkman South Carolina .475 1.9 1.0
8 Rudy Gay Connecticut .430 1.9 2.6
14 Ronnie Brewer Arkansas .458 1.9 2.0
2 LaMarcus Aldridge Texas .450 1.8 4.6
17 Shawne Williams Memphis .434 1.8 0.4

2013 WARP


LIKELY FIRST-ROUND PICKS

1. NERLENS NOEL, C, KENTUCKY

Noel's Projections | Age: 19

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Noel's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.488

3.6

1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Noel's WARP projection is a little on the low side for a No. 1 pick and would have put him second behind Kentucky predecessor Anthony Davis in last year's draft. Noel's defensive potential is immense. In addition to the second-best translated block rate of anyone in the draft (only Jeff Withey rates better), Noel also generates a high number of steals for a post player. He joins three post players in my database with translated steal percentages of 2.0 or better: DeJuan Blair, Kenneth Faried and Greg Monroe. That's important because steal rate tends to be an indicator of quickness that translates at the NBA level.

2. OTTO PORTER, SF, GEORGETOWN

Porter's Projections | Age: 20

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Porter's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.466

2.7

3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Given Noel's injury, Porter might be the surest thing in this year's draft. The Big East Player of the Year rates well across the board; his only statistical weakness (a category in which he's in the bottom 25 percent of past players at his position entering the NBA) is usage rate. Note that Porter, despite playing two years at Georgetown, is younger than freshmen Anthony Bennett and Shabazz Muhammad.

3. KENTAVIOUS CALDWELL-POPE, SG, GEORGIA

Caldwell-Pope's Projections | Age: 20

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Caldwell-Pope's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.469

2.6

11

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Caldwell-Pope rates atop a deep group of shooting guards, thanks in large part to his versatility. With good size for the position, Caldwell-Pope contributes on the glass and has an excellent steal rate. As a pro, Caldwell-Pope may be more efficient than he was as the first option on offense at Georgia.

4. CODY ZELLER, PF, INDIANA

Zeller's Projections | Age: 20

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Zeller's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.475

2.5

10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

After a terrific freshman year, Zeller took a step backward last season; he benefits from research showing that performance early in college is more important. Zeller's rebounding is a bit worrisome, but he figures to be an efficient scorer right away.

5. C.J. MCCOLLUM, PG, LEHIGH

McCollum's Projections | Age: 21

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

McCollum's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.496

2.5

9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Because McCollum was the Lehigh offense, he has the highest translated usage rate of any player in the top 30. McCollum was still reasonably efficient thanks to his accuracy at the line. And he's an excellent rebounder for a guard who also racked up steals against lesser competition.

6. LUCAS NOGUEIRA, C, BRAZIL

Nogueria's Projections | Age: 20

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Nogueria's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.474

2.4

23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For European players who played in the Spanish ACB -- the best domestic league -- or the continental Euroleague and EuroCup competitions, the translation process is the same except it involves players going both to and from the NBA. "Bebe" put up solid stats playing against grown-ups in the ACB. He blocked shots more frequently than Serge Ibaka did in the same league and projects to make nearly 55 percent of his 2-point shots.

7. TREY BURKE, PG, MICHIGAN

Burke's Projections | Age: 20

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Burke's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.459

2.2

7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Burke rates as the top point guard available. One slight red flag: Burke is a poor rebounder, which tends to be an important indicator for point guards. But nobody in this draft operates better in the pick-and-roll, the foundation of modern NBA offenses.

8. ANTHONY BENNETT, PF, UNLV

Bennett's Projections | Age: 20

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Bennett's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.447

2.1

4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bennett is the only player in the top 30 without any statistical weaknesses. If he can develop NBA 3-point range after shooting 37.5 percent on 3s at UNLV, Bennett will be the rare stretch 4 who also excels on the glass. But he's as old as many sophomores, which hurts his rating slightly.

9. MICHAEL CARTER-WILLIAMS, PG, SYRACUSE

Carter-Williams' Projections | Age: 21

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Carter-Williams' draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.473

2.0

7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Carter-Williams rates a hair behind Burke, and he has plenty of positives on his statistical résumé. Carter-Williams is ahead of Burke in terms of assist, steal and rebound rate. However, Carter-Williams is rated lower overall because he's nearly twice as prone to turnovers and he's a less accurate 2-point shooter.

10. SERGEY KARASEV, SG, RUSSIA

Karasev's Projections | Age: 19

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Karasev's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.429

2.0

13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A productive player in the EuroCup at age 19, Karasev should be able to contribute immediately whenever he comes to the NBA. Karasev is an excellent outside shooter -- he's projected to shoot 37.9 percent beyond the arc -- and a fine passer for a wing. Karasev is the last player with a WARP projection of 2.0 or better, which usually translates into an NBA starter.

11. STEVEN ADAMS, C, PITTSBURGH

Adams' Projections | Age: 19

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Adams' draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.429

1.9

12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Of the project college big men, Adams rates as the best prospect. After developing over the course of his lone season at Pitt, Adams figures to be able to contribute as a rebounder and shot-blocker off the bench right away.

12. GLEN RICE JR., SF, NBDL

Rice's Projections | Age: 22

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Rice's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.473

1.6

24

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rice's projection is based on a combination of his performance at Georgia Tech in 2010-11 and 2011-12 and last year's D-League translations. Rice was much more effective as a pro, and he's already demonstrated NBA 3-point range.

13. SHANE LARKIN, PG, MIAMI

Larkin's Projections | Age: 20

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Larkin's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.433

1.6

18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In almost every respect, Larkin is statistically a lesser version of Burke. However, he is ahead in terms of steal rate, one of his greatest strengths as a prospect.

14. TONY MITCHELL, PF, NORTH TEXAS

Mitchell's Projections | Age: 21

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Mitchell's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.442

1.5

21

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As a freshman, Mitchell rated as a top-five pick. As a sophomore, he rated as undraftable. His true ability lies somewhere in between, but his overall numbers suggest he might be slightly underrated.

15. ALLEN CRABBE, SG, CALIFORNIA

Crabbe's Projections | Age: 21

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Crabbe's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.426

1.1

25

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistically, Crabbe comes out as the best shooter in the top 30. Though other players have better translated 3-point percentages, Crabbe was a volume 3-point shooter and accurate at the free throw line (84.7 percent). But he contributes little in terms of blocks or steals.

16. KELLY OLYNYK, PF, GONZAGA

Olynyk's Projections | Age: 22

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Olynyk's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.445

1.1

19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Olynyk's shooting touch sets up everything he does offensively, inside and out. His translated true shooting percentage ranks third among the top 30, behind Zeller and Nogueira. Olynyk's poor shot-blocking suggests he'll be better as a power forward than a center.

17. VICTOR OLADIPO, SG, INDIANA

Oladipo's Projections | Age: 21

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Oladipo's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.443

1.1

2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

More than any other prospect, Oladipo is hurt by the emphasis on previous years. Based just on his junior season, Oladipo's WARP projection would crack the top 10. He was much less effective on offense his first two seasons, which has historically proved more indicative of NBA potential. Oladipo will be an impact defender either way, but he needs to contribute offensively to justify a top-five pick.

18. BEN MCLEMORE, SG, KANSAS

McLemore's Projections | Age: 20

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

McLemore's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.404

1.1

6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

McLemore's statistical profile reflects the conventional wisdom that he was too passive at Kansas. His translated usage rate (17.4 percent) is low for a top-10 pick, especially a shooting guard. Of greater concern is how rarely McLemore got to the foul line. And for a player who rarely created his own shot, he was surprisingly prone to turnovers. As a result, McLemore's upside appears overstated.

19. REGGIE BULLOCK, SG, NORTH CAROLINA

Bullock's Projections | Age: 22

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Bullock's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.443

1.0

23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Another late bloomer, Bullock played his best basketball as a junior, even when adjusted for age. As a dangerous 3-point shooter, he should be useful as a role player.

20. ISAIAH CANAAN, PG, MURRAY STATE

Canaan's Projections | Age: 22

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Canaan's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.430

0.8

29

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Canaan rated much better as a junior than during his senior year, when he took on a larger role offensively. But playing with more talented teammates in the pros may help him get back to that level. However, Canaan's translated 41.6 percent 2-point shooting is worrisome.

21. JAMAAL FRANKLIN, SG, SAN DIEGO STATE

Franklin's Projections | Age: 22

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Franklin's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.424

0.7

20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Franklin's athleticism manifests itself in excellent rebounding for a small forward, let alone a 2-guard. But Franklin will have to improve his 3-point shooting and cut down on his turnovers to avoid being an offensive liability.

22. TIM HARDAWAY JR., SG, MICHIGAN

Hardaway's Projections | Age: 21

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Hardaway's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.405

0.6

28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A volume scorer in training, Hardaway figures to have an above-average usage rate while scoring inefficiently both inside and outside the arc.

23. ALEX LEN, C, MARYLAND

Len's Projections | Age: 20

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Len's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.366

0.3

5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If Len indeed goes No. 1 -- or anywhere in the top 10 -- it will be on the strength of scouting and not his performance. Len was ineffective in two years at Maryland, and while that's partly attributable to the system in which he played, Len has no such excuses for his poor rebounding. His low translated steal rate is also an enormous red flag -- no player in my database has ever come up with steals so infrequently. Granted, DeAndre Jordan and Ryan Anderson have been able to overcome similarly low steal rates, but Hasheem Thabeet has not.

24. GORGUI DIENG, C, LOUISVILLE

Dieng's Projections | Age: 23

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Dieng's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.435

0.2

27

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The oldest player in the top 30, Dieng might have more upside than his age indicates because he picked up the game so late. At worst, Dieng will be an excellent defender, which would justify taking him in the 20s.

25. TONY SNELL, SF, NEW MEXICO

Snell's Projections | Age: 21

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Snell's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.379

-0.2

30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With his long arms, Snell looks the part of a defensive stopper, but he compiled few defensive stats. He rarely comes up with steals and was a nonfactor on the glass at New Mexico.

26. MASON PLUMLEE, C, DUKE

Plumlee's Projections | Age: 23

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Plumlee's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.407

-0.4

22

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The coveted athleticism that will make Plumlee a first-round pick is nowhere to be found in his numbers. Even after a breakout senior year, his translated rebound, steal and block rates are merely average for a rookie post.

27. SHABAZZ MUHAMMAD, SF, UCLA

Muhammad's Projections | Age: 20

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Muhammad's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.335

-0.7

17

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Since I covered Muhammad's weaknesses during the season, his projection has only gotten worse. Now, Muhammad and Plumlee are the lone top-30 players projected to rate worse than a replacement-level player -- the type of free agent available for the minimum. Among past players with subreplacement projections, about one-sixth have ended up actually performing better than replacement in the NBA.

NO PROJECTIONS: Antetokounmpo, Schröder and Ledo

Three top-30 players are without statistical projections. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Dennis Schröder played only in domestic leagues that rarely send players to the NBA, while Ricardo Ledo spent his only season at Providence ineligible and thus has no NCAA stats.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SECOND-ROUND STEALS

1. ANDRE ROBERSON, SF, COLORADO

Roberson's Projections | Age: 21

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Roberson's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.497

2.6

39

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Roberson fits a second-round stereotype -- an undersized power forward with big-time athleticism. He struggled last season trying to play more on the perimeter, but has excelled defensively and on the glass against bigger players. Consider Roberson a poor man's Kenneth Faried.

2. D.J. COOPER, PG, OHIO

Cooper's Projections | Age: 22

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Cooper's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.504

2.3

59

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cooper, who led Ohio to the Sweet 16 in 2012, has the best translated assist rate in the draft and racked up steals in the MAC. Scouts are probably rightfully concerned about Cooper's inability to finish -- his translated 2-point percentage is below 40 percent.

3. NATE WOLTERS, PG, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

Wolters' Projections | Age: 22

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Wolters' draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.492

2.2

36

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A crafty ball handler with good size for the point, Wolters rarely turns the ball over and excelled at setting up shooters in a spread offense. Along with Bennett, Wolters is the other prospect without any statistical weaknesses for his position. His translations suggest he could be an effective backup next season.

4. PIERRE JACKSON, PG, BAYLOR

Jackson's Projections | Age: 21

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Jackson's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.482

2.1

35

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jackson was the primary creator at Baylor last season, posting an above-average translated usage rate as well as an elite steal rate. He's also a dangerous outside shooter who could serve as instant offense from the bench, similar to the smaller Earl Boykins.

5. ARSALAN KAZEMI, PF, OREGON

Kazemi's Projections | Age: 23

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Kazemi's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.510

2.1

56

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

After excelling at Rice, Kazemi demonstrated last season he could do the same thing against better competition. He's an outstanding rebounder who uses his quickness to come up with steals against bigger opponents.

6. RYAN BROEKHOFF, SF, VALPARAISO

Broekoff's Projections | Age: 22

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Broekhoff's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.497

2.0

74

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A deep sleeper who only recently appeared on Ford's top 100, Broekhoff was a versatile contributor for the Horizon League champs. He has 3-point range and is a good passer for a wing, but scouts will question the strength of competition he faced.

7. KHALIF WYATT, SG, TEMPLE

Wyatt's Projections | Age: 22

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Wyatt's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.474

1.6

78

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wyatt's awkward game hasn't won many fans among NBA scouts, but his translations suggest he'll be a capable scorer with the ability to create offense for his teammates as a shooting guard.

8. MIKE MUSCALA, C, BUCKNELL

Muscala's Projections | Age: 21

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Muscala's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.460

1.5

33

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Muscala's combination of size and shooting touch could make him an effective pick-and-pop big man.

9. MARKO TODOROVIC, PF, SERBIA

Todorovic's Projections | Age: 21

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Todorovic's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.442

1.5

63

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Todorovic more than held his own in the Euroleague last season and should be a high-percentage shooter with the ability to step out beyond the 3-point line at times.

10. GRANT JERRETT, PF, ARIZONA

Jerrett's Projections | Age: 19

WIN %

WARP

FORD'S RANK

Jerrett's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

.415

1.5

38

No Mulligan.

But you gained a lot of respect from me for pulling up this old thread and saying you were wrong.
Not many would have done that.

We didn't have to when fierce was there to do it for us.