Post by Admin on Nov 14, 2017 13:16:12 GMT -5
Boston Celtics NBA Draft Big Board 2018: DeAndre Ayton? Marvin Bagley?
Who should Boston target with Lakers pick?
College basketball officially tipped off over the weekend, giving us our first look at the 2018 draft class. While most of the best players took on teams they knew they could roll over as a warm-up for the rest of the season, it's worth a refresher on who the top players are, and what fans should be watching for this season.
Before we get started, a quick reminder: The Celtics have the Los Angeles Lakers' 2018 pick protected unless it lands between No. 2 and No. 5. If the pick lands outside that range, the Celtics will get the better selection between Sacramento and Philadelphia in 2019 (top-one protected). The pick protections are a headache, although most Celtics fans are very familiar with them by now.
So how do things look for the Lakers pick? A week ago, Los Angeles was nearly in the playoff hunt at 5-5. Since then, the Lakers have lost three of their last four. Below them are several truly bad teams — Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, Sacramento and Phoenix for example — but after a nice start, the Lakers may be settling into their reality. For Boston, acquiring that pick is far from guaranteed, but it's certainly possible.
So which players will the Celtics be thinking about when they are sweating on the night of the lottery? By our evaluation, Boston's needs are simple: A young big man with franchise potential who fits into Boston's schemes, especially on the defensive end. Getting a high-potential young big man could alter the direction of the franchise, putting the Celtics on a path to simply build through the draft without making another big move that costs assets.
This year's draft is top heavy, and the top of the draft can be divided easily into two categories: Bigs and wings.
AP Photo/Gerry Broome
BIGS
This pains me personally, because I'm one of the biggest believers in one of the wings on this list, but the Celtics have enough young talent at the wing. If they get the Lakers pick — and if one of the top big men available in this draft is still available — the top bigs will be the priority.
Here's our order at the start of the college season.
1. DeAndre Ayton -- Arizona (C)
Class: Freshman
Height: 7-foot-0
Wingspan: 7-foot-5
Stats (through two games): 19 points, 12.5 rebounds, 2.5 blocks
Strengths
Of all the 2018 prospects, DeAndre Ayton has the highest ceiling. His frame and physical tools are absurdly good — a true 7-footer with long arms and a ton of bounce. Meanwhile, he's already fairly built for his age and will be able to physically compete immediately at the next level while he improves his body. In transition, he's deadly — incredibly fast and mobile, moving much more like a guard than a 7-foot behemoth.
Ayton's biggest critique in high school was his tendency to float around the perimeter — a valid complaint, although most who pointed it out hedged by noting how high-school competition doesn't exactly inspire top prospects.
It's a minuscule sample size, but through two games against bad competition, Ayton has not been floating at Arizona. He attacks the glass hard, going after offensive and defensive boards, and he has been firmly planting himself in the post to initiate his offense from there. While Ayton was happy to take 3-pointers in high school, he generated most of his offense at the rim in his first two games, where he was borderline unstoppable.
As a rim-protector, Ayton's potential is extremely high. He's so athletic and long, and his physical tools make him project as an elite pick-and-roll container at center.
What To Watch
Some things to watch from Ayton as the season progresses:
>Does he continue to stay engaged?
>His jumper is pretty flat. He can make mid-range shots, but can he extend to the 3-point line comfortably?
>When defenses start to collapse on him in the post, can he make them pay by finding shooters?
Fit with the Celtics
Again, it's clearly too early to make final evaluations, but given Ayton's skill set and physical tools, he looks like a phenomenal fit in Boston. Ayton is a true center with modern abilities, and developing alongside Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, he could give the Celtics one of the fiercest young cores in the league.
2. Marvin Bagley -- Duke (PF/C)
Class: Freshman
Height: 6-foot-11
Winspan: 7-foot-0
Stats (through two games): 24.5 points, 10 rebounds, 1.5 steals
Strengths
One of the first things you notice watching Bagley is how well he controls his body in the paint. He can catch an errant pass, collect himself and still snake around defenders in the post for layups and half-hooks. Meanwhile, he has excellent athleticism, and while his length isn't as impressive as No. 1 and No. 3 on this list, his build is already a supreme combination of athleticism and strength.
Bagley's left hand is one of the biggest weapons in the 2018 draft. He carves out space for himself well in the post, and when he can get to his strong hand, he can finish a variety of difficult, contested shots around the rim that will easily translate to the next level. His range stretches comfortably to the corner 3-pointer, and he is incredibly mobile and smooth in transition with and without the ball.
Bagley's motor has never been a question mark. He smashes his way to the basket, looking for offensive and defensive rebounds and drawing fouls in the paint. When he does corral the board, he has really strong hands and isn't likely to lose it again.
It sounds reductive, but Bagley is just a basketball player. He's really talented, and while his role isn't quite as crystal clear as the other bigs in the top five, it's difficult to imagine him failing at the next level.
What To Watch
Some of the things Bagley might need to improve this season:
> His left hand is impressive. His right needs some work. If he can become more ambidextrous around the rim, he could become
borderline unstoppable.
> Bagley is 2-for-9 at the line so far. Free throws can be an indicator of NBA 3-point shooting, so scouts will hope to see Bagley clean up his stroke.
> Bagley is very mobile and athletic, but is he long enough to protect the rim? Watching how he rotates from the weak side will be intriguing.
Fit with the Celtics
Bagley isn't quite as picture-perfect as a fully realized Ayton, but he would be a phenomenal addition. If he and Horford shared the front court, the Celtics would have a pair of stretchy big men who could both push the ball in transition and post up smaller defenders. Bagley is a natural rebounder who would be another strong addition on a Celtics team that appears very improved on the glass. Bagley, Tatum and Brown would be a fantastic trio.
3. Mohamed Bamba -- Texas (C)
Class: Freshman
Height: 7-foot-0
Winspan: 7-foot-9 (!!)
Stats (in one game): 15 points, eight rebounds, four blocks.
Strengths
We only have a one-game sample size for Bamba (compared to the totally sufficient two-game sample size for Bagley and Ayton), so we will be relying on some previous scouting here. Bamba's game continues to develop and improve — he's looking to stretch the floor to the college 3-point line and get into the post to score over smaller defenders. As the roll man in the pick-and-roll, he is athletic (if a little stiff) and he will certainly be a lob target. The improvements in Bamba's offensive game over the last two years are evident.
But Bamba's defensive potential remains the most intriguing aspect of his game by a pretty significant margin. His 7-foot-9 wingspan is nearly unheard of, and he affects nearly as many shots as he blocks (although he actually blocks plenty of them as well — four in his debut).
Surpassing Bagley and Ayton might be difficult for Bamba, given the offensive polish of the other two big men, but his defensive potential is sky high.
What To Watch
Here are the biggest questions Bamba will need to answer:
> Is his jumper real? He is getting positive results, but it looks awkward with his length.
> Can he show polish in the post and as the PnR roll man?
> How will he look offensively against real teams?
> Can he contain the pick-and-roll as a big?
Fit with the Celtics
Like Bagley and Ayton, Bamba would be a great piece next to Brown and Tatum. Defensively, the Celtics would have an enormous amount of length and versatility, and Bamba could do a lot of the things Horford can't in his first few years. As things stand now, Bamba seems like the worst of three phenomenally good options for Boston if Ainge lucks out in the lottery.
AP Photo/Jeff Roberson
WINGS
Something to potentially consider: Jayson Tatum looks like a future star. The Celtics clearly love him and would like to keep him, but if a superstar becomes available over the summer (and yes, we have one particular superstar in mind here) and Tatum is the asking price, Boston could look to find his replacement with the Lakers pick. If Boston is focused on keeping Tatum, it seems less likely they will draft a wing with Gordon Hayward returning and both Tatum and Brown excelling in the starting lineup.
One more note: Neither of the wings who round out our top-five have any stats yet, so we will simply rely on the previous analysis.
4. Michael Porter Jr. -- Missouri (SF/PF)
Strengths
Porter's combination of size and skill will keep him in every mock draft's top five this year. At 6-foot-10 with long arms, Porter has deep 3-point range and excellent finishing ability around the rim. He can put the ball on the floor and pull up or get all the way to the basket with ease and mobility — a fluid wing with the size of a power forward.
Defensively, Porter will be able to switch onto multiple different positions. It will be fascinating to see how well he can contain guards this year — if he can switch onto point guards, he will have potential defending positions one through four with shot blocking and rim protection. That combination of skills is very rare, especially for a player with Porter's offensive game.
What To Watch
Some things to keep an eye on:
> Can Porter hit 3-pointers off the dribble? To date, the answer has been yes, but playing against college competition could make a difference.
> Can Porter defend point guards?
> Is his handle tight enough for the next level at his height?
Fit with the Celtics
Porter shares a lot of similarities with Tatum — a tall wing with long arms who can play both forward positions, hit 3-pointers, pull up and get to the rim. Porter might be a little longer and a little taller, and his 3-point shot might be a little more developed, but Tatum seems more polished and NBA-ready as a scorer inside the arc.
A wing combination of Brown, Tatum and Porter would be phenomenal, but a combination of Brown, Hayward and Tatum promises to be better sooner. Porter seems like he might be the best non-big option for the Celtics if the Lakers pick conveys.
Luka Doncic -- Real Madrid (PG? SG? SF?)
Strengths
A 6-foot-8 wing (guard?) with deep 3-point range and an innate feel for the floor, Doncic is a little controversial as a prospect. Some scouts claim he's one of the best prospects to enter the draft since LeBron. Others point to his lack of elite athleticism and wonder how he will perform as a defender.
In either case, there's no denying Doncic's strengths. He will be able to shoot NBA 3-pointers with ease both off the catch and off the dribble, and he projects to be a phenomenal pick-and-roll handler. He can throw a wide variety of passes, and he can push the pace in transition expertly. In many ways, Doncic appears to be something of an offensive savant — a super high-IQ passer who can also score from all three levels with great size.
What To Watch
Doncic is only 18, but he has been playing professional basketball for years in Spain. Some things to watch (if you can find a Real Madrid stream):
> How will he translate as a defender? His height will help, but is it enough?
> How will he adjust to the athleticism and speed of the NBA game?
> His shot has taken a big step up recently, and while the stroke looks improved, is it for real?
Fit with the Celtics
Doncic is No. 1 on a lot of boards, but he might be lower for the Celtics who — once again — have plenty of wings (especially after Hayward's return) and love defensive versatility. Doncic may also be best with the ball in his hands, creating for himself and others. The Celtics already have a player in Kyrie Irving who needs (and absolutely should have) the ball in his hands as much as possible.
If Doncic somehow slips to No. 5 and the Celtics have the fifth pick, they will certainly be happy to take him, but he seems like the least likely fit for a Boston team that is well-stocked at the wing.
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