2023 Playoff Games (Celtics)

Look for Harden to get upwards of 10 free throws per game.

theathletic.com
Celtics-Sixers preview: Can 76ers survive Joel Embiid’s injury? Predictions and more
Rich Hofmann, Jay King, Jared Weiss


After a brief scare from the Hawks, the matchup we’ve been waiting for is finally here. The Sixers and Celtics have had some thrilling battles this year and now they get to clash on the biggest stage.

The catch is that Joel Embiid likely won’t be there to start. Embiid has an LCL (lateral collateral ligament) sprain in his right knee that Doc Rivers said will make him doubtful for at least Game 1 Monday in Boston. There is only one day off between each game in this series, so the clock is loudly ticking on Embiid’s return.

But the Sixers have nearly an extra week of rest, as the Celtics just eliminated the Hawks Thursday night. Can Philadelphia hit Boston with the first punch to set the tone for what should be a wild second-round series?

To break it all down, The Athletic’s 76ers writer Rich Hofmann connected with Celtics writers Jared Weiss and Jay King.

Jay King: So, the biggest unknown variables heading into the series are whether Embiid will play and, if so, how effective he will be. Doc Rivers’ comments about Embiid’s injury on Saturday did not sound particularly promising.

Doc Rivers on Joel Embiid: “He didn’t do anything today. If I was a betting man, I would probably say doubtful for at least Game 1.” pic.twitter.com/CbrjQgFDe6


Even if Embiid were fully healthy, the Celtics would test his body and stamina by stretching him out to the 3-point arc and forcing him to defend a whole bunch of actions. Their defense didn’t find much success trying to limit him this season, but Al Horford’s ability to space the court presents challenges the 76ers haven’t always been able to solve. The Celtics scored 117.4 points per 100 possessions against Philadelphia during Embiid’s minutes across four regular season matchups — that’s a hair better than Boston’s second-ranked offense averaged across the full season. The 76ers still won those minutes. Embiid was a bear (don’t poke him, Mr. Brooks). His performance against the Celtics in April was one of the best I’ve ever seen live. He crushed every Boston defender all night then picked apart double teams late in the fourth quarter. But Embiid needed to do just about everything for the 76ers that night to earn a close win. My biggest question entering this series is whether he can do all that while presumably not entirely healthy.

Rich Hofmann: As the calendar turns to May every year, like clockwork, Embiid is dealing with some sort of injury. The Sixers have now made the second round in five of the last six seasons… and Embiid has dealt with a significant injury in all of them.

The biggest question heading into the series is when Embiid will play. The Sixers, James Harden in particular, did not cover themselves in glory while bowing out to Miami in six games last year. But it’s important to remember they essentially punted the first two games while Embiid recuperated from a concussion and facial fracture. The Sixers’ margin for error when he returned was very small. But I do agree with you, Jay. Boston, perhaps more than any team in the league, will test Embiid’s likely limited mobility. It has been that way for a while. I think back to the 2018 postseason, when Horford killed the Sixers with pick-and-pops as Embiid was forced to make long closeouts against five-out lineups. That is still the case, except Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are much better.

I’m also curious about the other end of the floor. While teams like Toronto and Brooklyn in the last series have tested Embiid’s passing with almost reckless double-teams, the Celtics have been more conservative over the years. They have played in the gaps and showed him the threat of a double, even springing one here and there (especially like that 52-point game, when he was cooking them). But there has been a lot of single coverage mixed in there. If and when Embiid makes an appearance, how do you expect the Celtics to defend him?

King: They have usually tried to avoid double teams but he’s reached a new level that could make that strategy outdated. After eliminating the Hawks, Horford brought up the way Brooklyn defended Embiid and said the Celtics would look at “all that stuff” while coming up with a plan. Of course, the Nets sent aggressive double teams throughout that series, so it was an interesting comment from Horford. Did he mean to imply Boston will rely on more doubles? Was he using some gamesmanship by noting the strategy? It was out of character for Horford to bring up something that could potentially be in the game plan.

How big will the Celtics play? They started small against the Hawks, but used Horford and Robert Williams III together for 50 minutes during that series. That duo has typically been Boston’s best defensive frontcourt, but Derrick White’s emergence and Malcolm Brogdon’s arrival have convinced Joe Mazzulla to use smaller lineups far more frequently this season. Even if Williams is on the court, he will likely be used as a roaming helper, not as the primary defender on Embiid. Horford and Grant Williams have typically drawn that assignment. Williams didn’t play much during the first round, but I would be shocked if he’s not a bigger part of the game plan in this series. Blake Griffin could also be a wild card possibility for Mazzulla, especially if the Celtics get into foul trouble.

Regardless of what Boston decides, one major key will be their ability to keep Embiid off the free-throw line. He averaged nearly 12 free-throw attempts per game against them during the regular season, which was just about his season average (the man draws a whole lot of contact).

Jared Weiss: Embiid’s pull-up game out of the high post has changed the way teams have to double him, as the Celtics tend to play him in single coverage and then send over a nearby helper to contest from behind when he pulls up. Whenever a small comes over to hard double, he tends to sniff it out and get the ball out of there in time. Embiid is hurt, so the last thing the Celtics can do is let the Sixers get wide-open shots when he should be struggling to get into his pull-up game.

I’d expect the biggest limitation from his right knee injury is going to be loading up on that knee to hit the brakes and rise up into a shot. So the Celtics can tolerate his face-up game from the high post and have a chance to affect the shot. Plus, the more he misses midrange shots, the more control Boston has on the defensive glass and avoids all those and-1s he accrues over a series. A lot of this will fall on Harden, who can show a lot of aggression in the pick-and-roll game with Embiid and get him more open space to attack off the catch. The more Embiid can put the ball on the floor with space, the better. Presuming he can still do a Euro step and his other moves that cover so much ground.

King: One takeaway from the regular season: the Celtics were able to cut off Tyrese Maxey’s impact. Rich, how much of that is sustainable and how important will his offense be for the 76ers in this series?

Hofmann: You’re not kidding. In four games this season, the Celtics held Maxey to 10 points per game. That is the second-lowest total in the entire league, and in doing so, Maxey had a 40 percent true shooting percentage. There is no way to sugarcoat it: They have dominated him. And after the third matchup, the one in Philly that Tatum won with the late 3-point pointer, Embiid had an extended talk with Maxey in the locker room after the game. Embiid wasn’t yelling at Maxey, but he did express that the Sixers need the third-year guard to be better against an elite opponent like Boston. As good as Maxey is, it’s a difficult ask for a player who is still on his rookie contract. Now with Embiid likely out to start the series, the Sixers need him even more.

What has stood out is how much of a problem White has been against Maxey. Those two players have been primarily matched up on both ends of the floor, and especially in the two recent contests (one close Celtics win, one close Sixers win), White has won the one-on-one battle with Maxey handily. Like Trae Young in the prior series, White’s size and physicality make for a difficult cover for Maxey on defense. Rivers said Saturday the key is to “get (Maxey) some open-court looks.” Some easy fast-break buckets could get Maxey going. And while Boston has done an excellent job against Maxey, they need to bring the same level of intensity and attention to detail in this series. He’s capable of exploding for 35 against anyone.

If Embiid is out, Harden moves to the top of the scouting report for those games. How does Boston approach the guard matchups?


Weiss: This is one of Marcus Smart’s favorite battles. He and Harden have such a rich history against each other going back to Houston, as it basically turns into a psychological battle that happens to result in basketball. In that aforementioned February overtime win for Boston, Smart guarded Harden for 22.5 possessions and Harden went 0-for-1 from the field with two assists and two turnovers. Then in the April 4 Sixers win, White got the Harden matchup slightly more than Smart and also managed to keep him at bay for the most part.

The Atlanta series gave a key indication of how Joe Mazzulla will rotate the matchups, as White generally started plays on Trae Young while Smart marked Dejounte Murray. But the Celtics are always switching either 1-through-4 or across the board and it’s likely we’ll see them exchange matchups throughout this series. That matters because it tends to dictate Boston’s coverages, as they often put White in a deep drop so he can chase over the screen and pressure from behind, while Smart likes to either fight under screens to stay on the ball or switch. Mazzulla makes sure one of either Smart or White is on the floor with Malcolm Brogdon, so that will help prevent Harden from targeting Brogdon as he has in the past.

In the games Embiid is out, it’ll be interesting to see if they go with more high-pressure coverages to get the ball out of Harden’s hands or switch everything. Harden dominated Boston’s bigs and backups when he got them in switches, but there’s such a risk he can get into his pull-up game or deep penetration if they go with a deeper drop. The Celtics don’t like to have the bigs guard up to touch with the screen level because it means they have to send another help defender into the paint, but that might be the approach when it’s Paul Reed starting. The Celtics are used to sending extra help against the Sixers anyway and Reed isn’t making the reads Embiid can do from the post.

Because White is so good at defending closeouts and Maxey is so great at attacking them, Mazzulla should go with Smart on Harden for the most part and trust White can prevent Maxey from sprinting to the rim when they force Harden to kick the ball out. White is so good about picking players up in transition defense, so that’s their best antidote to getting Maxey going in transition like Rivers wants.

But how does the Celtics backcourt match up offensively?

King: During the first round, the Celtics guards (White, Brogdon and Smart) averaged a combined 47.3 points per game on 50-percent shooting. Boston will be extremely difficult to beat if those guys continue to be that productive and efficient. The Celtics should try to go at Maxey and Harden when they’re on the court. Can they regularly beat those guys off the dribble? Can they force Embiid and others into rotations? And, deep in games, can the Boston backcourt continue to knock down shots? Smart had a couple of shaky moments during the first round, but had a strong series overall. He closed out Game 6 with a string of smart reads.

The 76ers’ bigger concern might be what happens when Embiid hits the bench, assuming he does play. Over the 37 minutes he sat against Boston during the regular season, the Celtics outscored Philadelphia by 26 points. Shout out to Bball Paul, who can be great fun, but how much will the 76ers need to hold their breath when he’s on the court?

Hofmann: There is always the issue of the non-Embiid minutes, and if Rivers is to be believed, there might be 48 of them Monday. The Sixers have been an excellent shorthanded team — Rivers, in particular, is weirdly excellent at getting the most out of a limited roster — although winning a playoff game in Boston would be a much greater task.

Assuming Embiid does come back at some point, I generally feel better about the backup center minutes than I have his entire career. Maybe that isn’t the case against Boston, but hey, they are title favorites for a reason. Bball Paul isn’t perfect, but his good moments are much better than your Greg Monroes or Dwight Howards of yesteryear. He gradually gained Harden’s trust as an offensive player as the season moved along, which was a crucial development. And the Sixers have added players like De’Anthony Melton, Jalen McDaniels and P.J. Tucker who can fit with Harden, Tobias Harris and Bball Paul in a switchable lineup. One key contributor who might not be much of a fit in this series is Georges Niang, who has struggled to keep up with Boston’s athleticism. I expect Rivers to give him a shot, especially if Embiid misses the first game. But this hasn’t been a good matchup for Niang.

The success of that non-Embiid unit depends on Harden’s ability to create offense. When Embiid sat and Harden played this season, the Sixers were barely in the black. In Philadelphia, a plus-0.3 net rating when Embiid sits is parade-worthy. But against Boston, Harden will have to remember how to make 2-pointers after his touch vanished in the Brooklyn series. As a positive, he had eight full days to rest that Achilles up.

We have gone this long without talking much about the two Jays (Tatum and Brown), who have always been a matchup problem for the Sixers. I keep bringing up 2018 but a rookie Tatum torching Robert Covington in “The Confetti Game” is something I’ll never forget. It depends on what lineup Boston closes with, but if they start with the smaller group we saw against Atlanta, I would expect Tucker and Harris to start with those duties. But I imagine we will see the Celtics’ two star wings try to pick on Harden and Maxey quite a bit, no?

Weiss: What’s interesting about Tatum against the Sixers is he spent so much of the game trying to get Embiid switched on to him when it’s Melton or Tucker guarding him. When Philly has Harris guarding Tatum, Philly usually had Embiid drop while Harris tried to chase Tatum from behind. So if Tucker is starting on Tatum at the four, which I agree is what we’ll see, the Celtics have a lot of actions to get White and Smart screening for Tatum and Brown to force the switch while they’re on the move.

We’re going to see a lot of plays where the guards start with the ball and the Jays zoom out of the corners to get a handoff so they can attack the switch at full speed, or just high pick-and-roll to force the switch out in space. A big part of Boston’s game plan will be to have the guards try to hunt out a cross match in transition and get Harden or Maxey onto the Jays before the Sixers can fix their matchups, which worked in the Celtics’ February win when Brown was healthy. Even when the Sixers score, the Celtics should be looking to inbound quickly and push the tempo when Harden is being lazy getting back on defense. That’s where a lot of Brown’s points have come in the season series.

When Embiid is out, hunting the cross matches will be more crucial because getting by the point of attack defender is going to create wide-open looks with ease. Rivers has to get Harden to lock in on defense more than ever if they’re going to survive Embiid’s absence. But it’ll be fascinating to see how the Sixers cover the Jays if Embiid returns. Will they keep switching or leave him in a deep drop to limit his defensive activity? Tatum and Brown have dominated outside the paint when Embiid is in drop and their defender can’t chase over the screen, but he still can be a brick wall near the rim in those scenarios.

Hopefully, Embiid will be himself when he returns, because this series deserves a true star battle. Watching Tatum and Embiid — who have spent summers working out most of their careers — would be a treat. The Celtics should win this series, but Embiid and Harden will make it a tough out even if health is an issue. Celtics in 6.

King: Celtics in 6.

Hofmann: Celtics in 6 (real original).

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